5 April 2018
1. I have often had reservations whenever the Africa free trade zone concept is discussed, not because free trade zone as a concept is wrong, but the logistics, political will and low level of productive forces in much of Africa is so low that the project will not be favorable to the larger markets in Africa which are Nigeria and South Africa.
2. Ab initio, South Africa has largely ignored the whole idea of an all African free trade zone, but Nigeria has been on the middle ground. It took some of us by surprise when two weeks ago, precisely March 14th federal executive council meeting in Abuja when we learnt FEC approved that Nigeria should sign the framework agreement in Kigali March 21st. But thank God at the last minute someone spoke sense to President Buhari and he failed to sign the agreement.
3. The truth is that the all Africa free trade as a concept is great, but on a measurement in terms of Nigeria’s national interest it is not favorable at all. We will be at a loosing end because we bring too much to the table in terms of resources than other participating countries. An integration of this magnitude would destroy our economy. South Africa understood it better and also declined to sign.
4. I was also baffled and disappointed when Obasanjo got so angry at Buhari’s failure to sign the agreement that he went on air openly and called the action “criminal” when he spoke to KT press a Rwandan news outlet. Even if Buhari was wrong, is it proper for a statesman like Obasanjo to go to international media and castigate his country in that manner?
5. South Africa failed to sign, did we hear Tabo Mbeki calling the action criminal? Let’s get the facts straight and let’s look at history.
6. To those of you that follow Economic and Trade trends in Nigeria, you will recall that in 2013, Jonathan signed the ” Common External Tariff for countries in ECOWAS, even though most Development experts argued against it, our reasoning then was that it would have adverse effect on our local manufacturing industries and the flight of raw materials out of nigeria raising primary cost of production and subsequently creating unemployment. Seven years down the road some of us have been proven right on our speculations and trade assumptions.
7. We cannot continue to sacrifice Nigeria’s Industrial potentials and development on the alter of an uncoordinated, unserious, regional or continental quest for integration. The question is integration to whose benefit?
8. While some would argue that African Markets integration can be compared to the integration happening in EU via European markets, they fail to understand that both societies are different in terms of production related activities, coordinated tariff regimes, common currencies, labor mobility, and an integrated banking system. Most important, there’s political stability and the productive forces of those societies are highly developed. This was a similar argument I made last week on Bill Gates insisting that what is primary for nigeria now is human capital development.
9. In Africa everything I have mentioned above is the reverse. For some African countries it is even worst especially the Francophone countries where Paris still determine their internal banking interest rates and Economic growth. How do we start Economic and market integration when our people have not secured the very basic needs and freedoms from colonial control?
10. I felt very disappointed at Kemi Adeosun finance minister, Udoma national planning and CBN governor for not thinking through this policy before presenting it to the federal executive council for passage. I also feel disappointed at Obasanjo because being a past President he should understand these issues first hand and should understand that he does not need to bring down his countries president in foreign lands especially when he is no more privy to Economic policy intelligence reports.
11. Those who argue in favor of the all Africa trade zone are quick to point out that nigeria when integrated into the framework our local businesses will have access to more than 1.2 billion consumers all over Africa, it looks good on hearing, but they failed to understand that having access to 1.2 billion consumers with primary goods for production is different from reaching that same population with secondary goods for consumption. Don’t forget that African countries allegiance to western powers differs country by country.
I must say the federal executive council failed us too. These are people given resources to hire the best advisers on matters like these, but would not.
On Buhari’s last minute change of mind, it is a policy in the right direction, I endorse.
Princewill Odidi is a Public Affairs Commentator writing from Atlanta.
