3 August 2018
Akpabio complaining that Governor Udom has stripped him of everything and even terminated some of his own loyalist sounds funny. Udom is a man of his own. From my observations, political loyalty is alien to people of south south and south east.
Loyalty to a large extent is cultural, and is more common among the Yoruba tribes. A clear example is the power and influence of Tinubu on Lagos politics 18 years since he was governor.
Tinubu hand picked Fasola and Ambode. But such loyalty is alien to our people in the south . I may be wrong, but I foresee the power tussle brewing in Akwa Ibom state replicating itself in cross river state.
Why do I think so? The question is, Where will loyalty shift to? Ayade and his new aspirants who all want to displace sitting office holders or Imoke and his henchmen?
While AYADE has put everything in place to take over the political structure including hiring over five thousand aids as alleged, it will be very difficult to push IMOKE’s men aside.
This is my prediction going forward and I may be wrong. I strongly believe Ayade will move to Apc when the battle begins, I foresee Imoke and his men who occupy political office now staying back in PDP. Once this happens new alignments will emerge. Who eventually wins the soul of cross river state politics is going to be a mystery. But having studied CRS politics for sometime, I suggest Ayade does not undermine Imoke following Governor Udom footprint, it may be disastrous at the end.
Moreso, It is not easy to uproot a political structure, how Imoke and Ayade will settle on who contest for whatever position will determine if the center will continue to hold. If Ayade has to move to Apc then he has to carry virtually all Imoke men in senate, reps and house of assembly. If they fail to follow him, it will spell doom for his second term ambition.
Prediction no 2: if Ayade stays back in PDP, it will be more difficult for him because his greatest challenge will be IMOKE’s men in political offices. These guys are not ready to step down now. They will do everything to frustrate him, if he imposes his will and his candidates on them, then don’t be surprised to see a new alignment of IMOKE’s boys with the APC candidate. With this calculation, a combination of APC and Imoke's men may deny AYADE a second term, it sounds funny, but it is political reality.
Prediction 3: This is my political advice to Ayade. Go and have a frank conversation with Imoke, allow Imoke to have his way as a means of securing your second term with less challenge. AYADE’s new men may not like this option, but this is the option that will secure AYADE a peaceful second term return. Allow Imoke dictate the pace!!
Observation: It is easier to take over the structure of a party in your second term, not your first term. Attempting to command political loyalty during your first term is usually perceived as arrogance by those who delivered you. I hope Ayade retract his steps and follow IMOKE’s lead.
Remember the fight between two lagos aspirants in the 90s that ended up bringing Otedola a candidate no one knew, and how he ended up becoming lagos governor.
For Cross River, certainly it will not be a smooth ride to 2019, either Ayade is re-elected or power will change hands.
These are my personal political views, what do you think?
Odidi is a Social and Political Commentator writing from Atlanta.
