Some uncomfortable truths about additional state creation, Restructuring, creation of new local governments and even Separation.
1. The truth about any of the topics mentioned above is that it cannot happen by a Presidential decree or referendum it can only happen through a constitutional amendment.
2. Do you know for a constitutional amendment that can lead to Restructuring, state creation, local government creation, boundaries amendments and even a “ let my people go” separation, it will four fifth of the votes of both Senate and House of Reps?
3. Now consider this. Four fifth of 109 senators is 87 senators. What this means is that we need 87 senators to vote yes before we can start the process and we also need 288 members of the House of Reps out of 360 members to vote yes before we can proceed step one.
4. Now, this is where we have the real problem. We have 109 Senators, 63 are APC, and 45 are PDP, how can we get 87 votes to start the process in a system where voting is based on parties? This is what we call mission impossible. What about House of Reps? We have 360 members, out of which 288 votes are needed to institute a constitutional amendment. Now APC has about 190 members in the House while PDP has about 151 members and other parties have about 19 members with some seats not properly defined.
5. The big question is, how can we get 288 votes in a House whose votes are party based?
6. Nigeria as currently organized cannot move forward democratically. The benchmark for constitutional amendments is unrealistic.
7. A constitutional Confrence cannot even solve the problem because our constitution gave no room for a constitutional Confrence or referendum to lead the way to constitutional amendments.
Next, the constitution has a pathway for any structural change and it starts with four fifth votes from National Assembly, given the partisan divide, I call it mission impossible.
8. Remember, based on 1999 constitution as amended, structural changes require four fifth total votes while non structural amendments requires two third votes.
Going forward we have 5 options to choose one:
1. Civil war.
2. Maintain current structure and try to make it work as we search for good leadership.
3. Return to military rule so they effect structural changes by decrees. Remember all previous structural changes in the past and state and local government creations were done by military.
4. Build a one party country (dissolve multi party democracy) making it easy to get 87 senate votes or 288 House votes.
5. Pray that God change Nigeria.
For me I believe a way forward is no 2, making the current structure to work based on good leadership.
For you, Out of the 5 options which would you support and why?
Princewill Odidi is a Social commentator writing from Atlanta.
