Governor Ayade as a Poor Political Mathematician —By Simon Utsu

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Simon Utsu|19 April 2017 
It's funny or should I say, interesting how the tide turns in politics. Just last week, I was busy mocking the dis-organisation in the state's opposition as regards 2019 and telling Ayade to 'carry go' in 2019 but the events of the last couple of days have led to me having a sober rethink. 2019 might not be a bed of roses after all. In fact, with the kind of political miscalculations ‎Ayade is making on a serial basis, I foresee him walking on thorns and thistles in the run in to that election —I doubt if he'll come out unscathed nay victorious. 
What informed his withdrawing his support for Senator John Owan-Enoh, the Senator representing Cross River Central Senatorial District? Such a move at such a time isn't just good for politics, it‎'s also also bad for governance. It has the effect of destabilising the polity as well as making the Senator lose concentration(on governance/legislative affairs) in his bid to either realign or consolidate his hold. From what I've gathered, Senator Owan-Enoh and many other Federal legislators from Cross River may be on their way out of the PDP before the end of the year. This could leave Ayade with only Senator Rose Oko(Cross River North Senatorial District), Essien Ayi(Calabar South/Akpabuyo Federal constituency) and Bassey Ewa(Abi/Yakurr Federal constituency) as his only trusted senior political 'allies' in the state PDP. 
Essien Ayi is an astute politician and a grass rooter no doubt but can he give Ayade more than Calabar South? Rose Oko is a political lightweight with due respect, she lacks the ginger to mobilise more than one local government for Ayade in northern Cross River. Bassey Ewa who is a very slippery figure is loathed in the state's polity – for obvious reasons; I learnt he betrayed his political benefactor, Liyel Imoke and has delivered nothing to his immediate constituency even after spending 18 years in the top cadre of Cross River state politics. Is it this same Bassey Ewa we're hearing Ayade is supporting to replace Senator Owan-Enoh in 2019? I laugh in French!
‎But if I may ask, what kind of politician cuts himself off tested politicians and surrounds himself with only rookies or members of the old order who people love to hate? What kind of thought process churns out such series of political miscalculations?
In politics, one has to reduce his battlefronts to the barest minimum —fight only the necessary battles. There's no need to open battlefronts with all the federal legislators because of perceived disloyalty. What happened to drawing them closer and buying them over? grassrooters and performers like Senator Owan-Enoh, Representative Jarigbe Agom and co should be pampered by Ayade if he actually understands the rudiments of politics.
The above, coupled with the fact that the two main warring factions in the state's APC were reconciled yesterday by the highly revered Obol Lopon of Ugep, augurs political doom for his Excellency, Senator Professor Benedict Bengioushuye Ayade, the digital governor of Cross River state in  2019.

Simon Utsu 
Is a Social Commentator