Emmanuel Undie|3 February 2016|6:15am
The Americans are not like any other group in this world. You can always predict them. Most especially, those of us that work with the numbers for a living find the American society a very interesting one. If you understand them, you would find them interesting also. The most interesting of all this is that you think you understand what they are doing but you really don’t.
Including Trump, when you are in such a situation, and you get yourself carried away by the fan fare that you forget you can never go home to sleep peacefully because you really don’t know what is on the average person’s mind until it comes out, you would have made a huge mistake -Trump and Hilary are case studies.
The Iowa Primaries -a lesson to be learnt.
This little paper has no space to do justice to the American’s character as it is exhibited in the just concluded Iowa Primaries. Americans have strong values and principles. They are very educated and they are well-informed about what they want and they know exactly how to get it and they always get it. The question to ask yourself is: What do these people want? If you look at those clapping or those praising you, or the number present during the celebration or fan fare, you would miss it every single time. That is the mistake both Clinton and Trump made. And the rest is history.
Yesterday morning, Clinton was projected to win the day standing strong at 67% in Iowa. On Christmas day, Clinton was 91%, Sanders was 9%. The numbers don’t lie. But the person you compile the numbers from may lie! Long ago, I was clear that Sanders was going to pose a serious challenge to Clinton. I still maintain that he will be the likely President of the United States of America.
Something has to really go very right for him not to be and I know things usually go more wrong than right. Example, with all the hype in Trumps camp, I knew the man wasn’t going to go far and in some other forums, I said it. It is about human behavior and different people exhibit a certain behavior. I can wish all I want to wish but if I want to come up with the right prediction, I have to look at the ‘human behavior’ involved.
There is something called Predictive Analysis based scientifically on models, not feelings or fan fare. There is also something called a wish list. These are two different things. Obama won elections on the campaign platform of change, anti-establishment, hope, etc. Those sentiments are still there. People hate Washington politics. The American public hates the mainstream politics as is played by the establishment. When Obama came in, the average American felt that the Republicans had taken them a long, wrong road to a fix. They saw in Obama an innocent, young, intelligent man who they felt would bring them out of where they were. They didn’t feel threatened by Obama. They looked at his counterpart -Mitt Romney- as cocky and arrogant, drastic, erratic, etc.
Americans want to put their hearts where they can predict fairly well. They don’t like to take lots of chances with the unknown. They can like your face and the way you talk and respond to things….but when it comes to government, you are not going there except you fit a certain profile. Why didn’t McCain get even close to the winning numbers? Why are they preferring Cruz now? He has that character more than any other experienced person on that campaign trail.
Remember that the Clinton Oligarchy is one of the fiercest political forces in American politics. The average American doesn’t like that. Obama won, only because he took his battle to the doorsteps of the American people. That exactly is what Sanders is doing. Hitherto, to pick the Presidential ticket in the Democratic Party, the Clinton machinery has to endorse you.
Yesterday a message was being passed to this machinery and also the Republican Party machinery that America wants to move forward. As a matter of fact, if I were Hilary, she shouldn’t have run except that she can not be satisfied with all that she already has. “We all want to see a woman in the White House. But we can wait? ” That’s what a woman Democratic Party supporter said. We all wish Hilary should win. But the predictive sciences show that she will not, except something beyond the norm happens.
Emmanuel Undie
Is a Public Affairs Analyst-cum-Social Commentator
