25 October 2020
The EndSARS protest is entering its 7th day and we can see 3 distinct groups emerging. The groups are the
1. The Youthful EndSARS protesters
2. The Government
3. The Ordinary Citizens
The 3 groups are united by 2 facts: We are all Nigerians and no one knows how all of this will end.
Fortunately, other nations have passed through this and we can learn from what happened and make fairly accurate predictions about what will happen in Nigera.
My take is that:
1. The EndSARS protesters: Because the protest was "spontaneous", with a fixed goal which has become fluid and changing daily with no exit strategy, internal contradictions will play out and it will self destruct . Provided that it isn't taken over by professional and well funded local or international agents of destabilisation.
2. Government: Both Federal and State Governments were caught flat footed by this protest and have been scrambling to fashion out an appropriate response. The restraint so far demonstrated is wise and commendable. It has helped in keeping things relatively calm but as disruption and infiltration by hooligans (sponsored and otherwise) continues then Government will have no choice other than to begin to deploy force in order to maintain "Law and Order" in society. Some people will die and finger pointing and cover up will ensue.
3. The Citizens are excited by the prospect of things changing for the better and an opportunity to hold their oppressors (police and politicians) accountable for their numerous crimes. However, as their daily lives begin to get disrupted, their property destroyed and hooligans take over without tangible gains, enthusiasm will wane and they will finally turn against the protesters.
This protest, however is too good an opportunity for genuine Patriots and the country to miss.
If allowed to proceed on the present trajectory, it will end in either the protesters going home with a few dead and plenty of outrage on social media and very little actual gains to show for all the effort; or it will escalate and spiral out of control, with encouragement of vested foreign interests, until the Government is brought down.
From the experiences of Libya, Egypt and other Arab spring victims, we know that it is the most organised, armed and radical or foreign sponsored groups that will fight and eventually take over the reins of government. Ask the originators of the Arab Spring.
There is also the risk, if things get really chaotic, that Nigeria will become the battle ground for the world powers. Ask Syria, Libya and now Azerbaijan.
This is a scenario that no true patriot wants.
In order to avoid either of the scenarios described above, I wish to make the following suggestions to both the Protesters and Government.
1. RELEASE PROTESTERS. A no brainer, but there should be more publicity as they are handed over to family etc.
2. End SARS. Government has ended SARS but the trust deficit between citizens and government was widened by the immediate announcement of SWAT as a replacement. To rebuild trust the following steps should be considered as visible and tangible short term results that benefit Protesters, Government and the Citizens:
A. Suspend SWAT and announce a timeline for further action.
B. Advertise publicly for officers to join the elite squad to be created.
C. Make the process transparent, Statewide and observe federal character strictly.
D. Give them proper training, equipment, life and injury insurance etc as befits an elite squad.
E. Create an independent oversight committee with adequate representation from youth and civil society.
3. POLICE REFORMS:
A. Changing police salaries alone will open a floodgate of protests from all other underpaid segments. Instead, institute a reasonable monthly hazard allowance for officers and men on active duty.
B. Implement a robust life and injury insurance policy for all policemen.
C. Carry out massive renovation and build new police barracks. This could be a joint State and Federal effort for reasons to be advanced. It's also an opportunity to do public procurement properly and in a transparent manner that sets the standard for future government contracts.
4. JUSTICE FOR VICTIMS… The call for trial and prosecution of homicidal SARS agents will lead nowhere. The trust deficit is informed by past experiences where cases were deliberately badly prosecuted or knocked out on flimsy technical grounds. Will the trial not be conducted by the UNREFORMED judiciary?
Instead…set up a Truth Commission like Rwanda or Oputa panel, but make it in each state. It gives victims families an opportunity to vent and heal under a more supportive and transparent atmosphere.
These are tangible and easily achievable steps that give all sides verifiable results.
The protesters need to get off the streets now. Remain anonymous. Do not advertise their leadership even though the security services must already know who the main influencers are. Restrategise. Learn from the past mistakes and prepare for the next phase. Rebuilding a country is a marathon and not a sprint.
The alternative is to stay on the streets until chaos descends upon us all and the militias take over.
B. Ndem
