Ceejay Ojong|2 January 2018
Theory of Change (ToC) is a specific type of methodology for planning, participation, and evaluation used mostly in non-profit organizations and government sector to promote social change.
It evolved in the 1990s and became prominent with the 1995 publication of the Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change: ‘New Approaches to Evaluating Comprehensive Community Initiatives. In the publication, a member of the Roundtable’s steering committee on evaluation – Carol Weiss, convincingly opined that a key reason complex programs are so difficult to evaluate is that the assumptions that inspire them are poorly articulated.
She argued that stakeholders of complex community initiatives typically are unclear about how the change process will unfold and therefore place little attention on the early and mid-term changes needed to reach a longer term goal.
The approach of ToC involves the definition of long-term goals and then mapping backward to identify necessary preconditions. The process of change is also explained by outlining causal linkages in an initiative that include its shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes.
The identified changes are mapped – as the “outcomes pathway” – showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others, as well as chronological flow. The links between outcomes are explained by “rationales” or statements of why one outcome is thought to be a prerequisite for another.
The innovations to be found in ToC would include:
– Making the distinction between desired and actual outcomes
– Requiring stakeholders to model their desired outcomes before they decide on forms of intervention to achieve those outcomes.
Theory of Change can begin at any stage of an initiative, depending on the intended use. A theory developed at the outset is best at informing the planning of an initiative. Having worked out a change model, practitioners can make more informed decisions about strategy and tactics.
As monitoring and evaluation data become available, stakeholders can periodically refine the Theory of Change as the evidence indicates.
A ToC can be developed retrospectively by reading programme documents, talking to stakeholders, and analyzing data. This is often done during evaluations reflecting what has worked or not worked in order to understand the past and plan for the future.
The dialectics of social science evaluation of phenomena relies on both the 'normative' which is about 'what ought to be', as well as the 'positive' – which is 'what is'.
A'priori, the 'positive' in this case can be taken for granted as the current state of chaotic disorder in planning, monitoring and evaluation of policy, projects and programmes at the different tiers of government. Whilst shared values and a common vision are truly important ingredients in the Theory of Change, they are in themselves nevertheless even more value-laden and dependent on psychological introspection.
Besides, it may not be absolutely correct to completely assume away the absence of shared values and common vision in the governance and institutional policy-making structure of the different tiers of government in Nigeria. We have had National Development Plans, the NEEDS (National Economic Empowerment & Development Strategy), SEEDS (State Economic Empowerment & Development Strategy), National Vision 20:2020, Transformation Agenda, Change Mantra, Fiscal Strategy Papers, Medium-term Expenditure Framework, Medium-Term Sector Strategies and so on over the years up until the recent ERGP (Economic Growth & Recovery Plan – Nigeria).
In addition, Annual Budgets and Appropriation Bills have been passed yearly for as long as we can remember. All of these provide a veritable framework for applying the theory of change as a tool for achieving real social change and ensuring transparent distribution of power dynamics.
Power dynamics in the context of the nature of the redistribution of power in seeking to implement the change process as occurs in most aspects of development. Power analysis forms the basis for hypothesizing how the desired change might come about.
It could be looked at in terms of ‘Power within’ (example: helping women acquire the confidence and knowledge to demand their rights); '’Power with’ (collective organization); or ‘power to’ (example supporting Civil Society Organization advocacy).
Another way of looking at it is to ask useful questions such as:
What are the key forces driving or blocking such a change? What economic or political interests are being threatened or promoted by the change? Which groups are drivers or blockers or undecided? Is their power formal (example elected politicians) or informal (traditional leaders, influential individuals)?
Is it visible (rules and force) or invisible (in people heads – norms and values) or hidden (behind the scenes influence). Who do the key players listen to (because that may help us decide on our alliance strategy). Which individuals are likely to play key roles, either as allies or opponents? And so on.
It is important to note that ToC is not just a methodology for planning and evaluation but also a form of critical theory that ensures a transparent distribution of power dynamics. Its processes are necessarily inclusive of many perspectives and participants towards achieving the desired solutions..
In sum, it is my considered opinion that the understanding, adoption and faithful implementation of the theory of change approach would assist the different tiers of government in Nigeria to achieve real social change and ensure transparent distribution of power dynamics beyond the current mouthing of change mantra.
God bless Nigeria!
Ceejay Ojong
Abuja – Nigeria.
